Climate-change impacts in a regional karst aquifer, Texas, USA, 2000, Loaiciga H. A. , Maidment D. R. , Valdes J. B. ,

Climate-change scenarios were created from scaling factors derived from several general circulation models to assess the likely impacts of aquifer pumping on the water resources of the Edwards Balcones Fault Zone (BFZ) aquifer, Texas, one of the largest aquifer systems in the United States. Historical climatic time series in periods of extreme water shortage (1947-1959), near-average recharge (1978-1989), and above-average recharge (1975-1990) were scaled to 2 x CO2 conditions to create aquifer recharge scenarios in a wanner climate. Several pumping scenarios were combined with 2 x CO2 climate scenarios to assess the sensitivity of water resources impacts to human-induced stresses on the Edwards BFZ aquifer. The 2 x CO2 climate change scenarios were linked to surface hydrology and used to drive aquifer dynamics with alternative numerical simulation models calibrated to the Edwards BFZ aquifer, Aquifer simulations indicate that, given the predicted growth and water demand in the Edwards BFZ aquifer region, the aquifer's ground water resources appear threatened under 2 x CO2 climate scenarios. Our simulations indicate that 2 x CO2 climatic conditions could exacerbate negative impacts and water shortages in the Edwards BFZ aquifer even if pumping does not increase above its present average level. The historical evidence and the results of this article indicate that without proper consideration to variations in aquifer recharge and sound pumping strategies, the water resources of the Edwards BFZ aquifer could be severely impacted under a warmer climate. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved

Sensitivity of ancient Lake Ohrid to local anthropogenic impacts and global warming, 2006, Matzinger A. , Spirkovski Z. , Patceva S. , Wuest A. ,

Human impacts on the few ancient lakes of the world must be assessed, as any change can lead to an irreversible loss of endemic communities. In such an assessment, the sensitivity of Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania; surface area A = 358 km(2), volume V = 55 km(3), > 200 endemic species) to three major human impacts-water abstraction, eutrophication, and global warming-is evaluated. It is shown that ongoing eutrophication presents the major threat to this unique lake system, even under the conservative assumption of an increase in phosphorus (P) concentration from the current 4.5 to a potential future 9 mg P m(-3). Eutrophication would lead to a significant reduction in light penetration, which is a prerequisite for endemic, deep living plankton communities. Moreover, a P increase to 9 mg P m(-3) would create deep water anoxia through elevated oxygen consumption and increase in the water column stability due to more mineralization of organic material. Such anoxic conditions would severely threaten the endemic bottom fauna. The trend toward anoxia is further amplified by the predicted global warming of 0.04 degrees C yr(-1), which significantly reduces the frequency of complete seasonal deep convective mixing compared to the current warming of 0.006 degrees C yr(-1). This reduction in deep water exchange is triggered by the warming process rather than by overall higher temperatures in the lake. In contrast, deep convective mixing would be even more frequent than today under a higher temperature equilibrium, as a result of the temperature dependence of the thermal expansivity of water. Although water abstraction may change local habitats, e.g., karst spring areas, its effects on overall lake properties was shown to be of minor importance